About
Armored Alliance is a crowd-sourced prediction market.
Get live prices and probabilities on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money market and trade shares on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Armored Alliance is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Armored Alliance to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Armor (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to trade on Armored Alliance. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and trade on any type of question.
How do I win cash prizes?
Armored Alliance runs regular prize drawings where you can win real USDC.
No purchase necessary—you can claim a free entry once per drawing. Winners will need a crypto wallet to receive their winnings.
Our mission
Provide the most accurate, real-time predictions on any event.
Combat misleading news by incentivising traders to be fast and correct.
Help people make more informed decisions by improving their model of the future.